Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 0.012596 0.014241 0.016022 0.018092 0.020433 0.023000 0.026028
2025-11-02 0.009895 0.012140 0.014773 0.018093 0.022169 0.027017 0.033229
2025-11-09 0.008240 0.010688 0.013724 0.017769 0.023024 0.029632 0.038592
2025-11-16 0.007284 0.009889 0.013269 0.017982 0.024397 0.032842 0.044842
2025-11-23 0.006425 0.009074 0.012649 0.017833 0.025179 0.035243 0.050136
2025-11-30 0.005921 0.008664 0.012498 0.018257 0.026719 0.038736 0.057182
2025-12-07 0.005219 0.007886 0.011733 0.017703 0.026765 0.040060 0.061159
2025-12-14 0.004703 0.007321 0.011210 0.017425 0.027153 0.041863 0.065939
2025-12-21 0.004208 0.006733 0.010589 0.016926 0.027128 0.042998 0.069733
2025-12-28 0.004023 0.006609 0.010664 0.017506 0.028825 0.046914 0.078240
2026-01-04 0.003806 0.006410 0.010595 0.017837 0.030128 0.050280 0.086108
2026-01-11 0.003632 0.006264 0.010596 0.018274 0.031629 0.054067 0.094974
2026-01-18 0.003365 0.005943 0.010287 0.018170 0.032223 0.056415 0.101637
2026-01-25 0.003142 0.005678 0.010050 0.018173 0.033001 0.059141 0.109214
2026-02-01 0.002889 0.005338 0.009652 0.017847 0.033152 0.060754 0.114876
2026-02-08 0.002743 0.005177 0.009558 0.018062 0.034300 0.064240 0.124302
2026-02-15 0.002558 0.004929 0.009283 0.017912 0.034745 0.066449 0.131460
2026-02-22 0.002466 0.004848 0.009312 0.018338 0.036319 0.070900 0.143357
2026-03-01 0.002259 0.004526 0.008855 0.017781 0.035918 0.071498 0.147588
2026-03-08 0.002103 0.004293 0.008553 0.017502 0.036043 0.073126 0.154032
2026-03-15 0.001936 0.004023 0.008157 0.017001 0.035669 0.073712 0.158336
2026-03-22 0.001897 0.004014 0.008282 0.017584 0.037591 0.079137 0.173373
2026-03-29 0.001834 0.003949 0.008289 0.017916 0.039003 0.083602 0.186693